Nest Seekers International

The economic and financial unease over the past several months have appeared to make their impact on the NYC residential sales market in the 4th quarter of 2011, as average sales price and transactions have declined. Sales of all homes in New York City were down 12 percent from the fourth quarter of 2010 and the average price of a home decreased 6 percent from the fourth quar- ter of last year. The share of Manhattan apart- ment sales of $5 million and over to total Manhattan apartment sales were down 18 per- cent year over year.

Despite the continued national economic weakness, tumultuous credit and equity markets, and the disarray in Euro economies, the New York City residential sales market stood firm. Total NYC residential sales consideration was up 8.41 percent from the second quarter to $8.04B. Compared to last year, residential consideration was down 3.89 percent. This was mainly due to the first time home buyer tax credit closing dead- line being extended into the third quarter of 2010. Due to that extension many sales that were being rushed to close in the second quarter closed in the third quarter, raising the total consideration for that quarter. Therefore the tax credit extension had the effect of artificially making the third quar- ter of 2011 look weaker in comparison.

The New York City residential sales market continued to post mixed results in the second quarter of 2011. The average sales price of a home in New York City increased 2 percent and the number of home sales increased 10 percent compared to the first quarter of 2011. This trend reflects the traditional seasonal variation in the residential sales market.

The New York City residential sales market moved sideways in the in the first quarter of 2011 with the average price of a home declining by 1 percent while the number of transactions increased by 2 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2010. The lack of clear direction was also demonstrated by a 1 percent increase in the total dollar consideration for all residential trans- actions.

The New York City residential sales market remained on steady footing during third quarter of 2010 overcoming the obstacles of the expiration of the first time homebuyer’s tax credit and loss of momentum in the overall economic recovery. The total consideration for residential property was $8.36 billion up 10.75 percent quarterly and 26.2 percent when compared to the third quarter of 2009, the first quarter in the NYC residential mar- ket recovery. Manhattan residential considera- tion during the third quarter of 2010 constituted 57.51 percent of the total market compared to 53.72 percent in the second quarter of 2010. Brooklyn saw a 20 percent increase in total con- sideration compared to the last quarter. This was the largest quarter to quarter percentage increase in the five boroughs. Sales volume for all homes in New York City when compared to the third quarter of 2009 increased by 18 percent. All homes sales in New York City were also up 12 percent quarter to quarter. Sales volume was strongest in Brooklyn and Manhattan where all homes sales were up over the third quarter2009, when the market recovery began, by 32 percent and 25 percent respectively. Much of this all homes increase was due to strength in condo sales. Brooklyn condo sales increased more than twofold over the third quarter of 2009 and Manhattan sales increased 26 percent. The mar- ket for 1-3 family homes in New York City was still above the sales levels of the third quarter of 2009 though not by the margin seen in the condo mar- ket. City wide sales of 1-3 family homes were up 6 percent over last year’s third quarter.

The New York City residential sales market in the fourth quarter of 2010 saw a continuing and sustainable rise in the average sales price and a sharp decline in the number of transactions. Average sales price increases over the last year have been driven by record low mortgage rates, the federal home buyer tax credit, a significant slowdown in the supply of new housing, and modest job growth in New York. The decline in transactions was the result of the end of the homebuyer tax credit along with the extension of the closing deadline that inflated sales in the third quarter of 2010, a drop-off in the pent-up demand that produced an uncharacteristic surge in transactions in the fourth quarter of 2009, and a return to typical seasonal sales activity in the market.

The New York City residential sales market in the second quarter of 2010 continued showing the characteristics of a healthy market and contin- ued the trend that emerged during the previous two quarters. The total consideration for residen- tial property was $7.5B, up 4.8% quarterly and 72.8% when compared to the frozen market of the second quarter in 2009. Manhattan residential consideration during the second quarter of 2010 constituted 59.1% of the total market compared to 48.8 percent in the second quarter of 2009. Sales volume for apartments, when compared to the first quarter of 2010, increased moderately in the all boroughs, except for Staten Island. Sales vol- ume remained well above the numbers seen dur- ing the freeze up of the market that persisted from the last quarter of 2008 through the second quarter of 2009. The market for 1-3 family homes though has stalled since the ramp up of sales that started in the third quarter of 2009. Volume in Brooklyn and Queens did increase over the previ- ous quarter but only by the respective margins of 2% and 5%. (It is possible that 1-3 family home prices adjusted downward faster than the apart- ment market. Therefore, recovery in 1-3 family market occurred sooner and with more voracity and has now started a period of deceleration.)

The total dollar value of New York City resi- dential sales was $7.2B in the first quarter of 2010, up over 63 percent compared to the first quarter of last year. Manhattan sales represented about 56 percent of this total value. Brooklyn and Queens each accounted for 17 percent of the total dollar value of sales, while Staten Island rep- resented 7 percent and the Bronx 3 percent. However, this New York City total dollar value was a 9 percent drop from the $7.9B figure for the total value of sales last quarter.

The New York City residential sales market in 4q09 continued to show signs of recovery as the positive indicators of the last quarter— increasing transactions and a slowdown in price declines--continued into the final quarter of the year. Sales volumes increased once again, both quarterly (20 percent) and year to year (17 per- cent). Citywide average home sales prices inched up one percent, quarter to quarter and year to year. In many areas of the market, we are seeing modest quarter to quarter increases, with some of these gains bolstered by a flurry of closings in new condominium buildings.

The residential real estate market in New York City came back to life in the third quarter of 2009. Sales prices and transaction volume reversed the trend of falling quarter on quarter figures in many markets. These quarter to quar- ter market improvements were due to factors other than the typical summer boost in activity. These improved market indicators are repre- sented in much of the borough-wide data, and equally apparent when analyzing the neighbor- hoods by property class. Nevertheless, it should be stated that the recovery in the resi- dential real estate market in New York City is fragile and needs to continue through the next two quarters before we can say with irrefutable confidence that a recovery is underway. Analyzing the year to year changes, it is clear that the market is not back to the high velocity of transactions and sales prices of the pre-finan- cial crisis period which established a record for the number of sales and for the average sales price.

Average sales prices of a home in New York City (which includes cooperatives, condominiums and one-to-three family dwellings) declined 23 percent to $660,000 in the first quarter of 2009 compared to the same time last year, according to the REBNY New York City Residential Sales Report released in April. Despite the overall decline, the report found that certain segments of the market showed signs of life: Queens condominiums saw a 21 percent jump to an average price of $486,000 and in Brooklyn, Greenpoint condominium prices increased 7% to $543,000. In Manhattan, TriBeCa condominium prices surged 57 percent to $3,578,000 and on the Upper East Side condominium prices increased 25 percent to $2,377,000. These increases were due to a concentration of closings at several new developments.

Homes (includes all condominium, coopera- tive units and 1-3 family dwellings) ␣ The average sales price of a home in New York City during the second quarter of 2009 was $644,000, a 22% drop compared to the average price during the second quar- ter of 2008. The year on year change in the average price of a home in Manhattan was down 19% to $1,297,000; in Queens prices fell 13% to $403,000; in Brooklyn prices fell 12% to $503,000. Apartments (includes all condominium and cooperative units) ␣ The average sales price of an apartment in New York City during the second quarter of 2009 was $771,000, a 23% drop year on year. The average price of an apartment in Manhattan in the second quarter of 2009 was $1,248,000 a drop of 19% from the second quarter of last year. Brooklyn’s average sales price of an apartment in the second quarter of 2009 was $421,000, a fall of 16% from the previous year’s second quarter. The average sales price of an apartment in Queens in the second quarter was down 2% from last year to $282,000. The Bronx average price of $253,000 is an increase of 12% over the second quarter of last year.

Homes (includes all condominium, coopera- tive units and 1-3 family dwellings) ␣ The average sales price of a home in New York City during the first quarter of 2009 was $660,000, a 23% drop compared to the average price during the first quarter of 2008. The individual borough's average home price declines though were not as steep as the city wide number. ␣ The average price in Brooklyn was down 10% to $521,000. In Queens the average price dropped 8% year on year to $422,000. The year on year change on the average price of a home in the Bronx was down 8% to $365,000. The average price in Staten Island fell 6% year on year to $401,000. ␣ The average sales price of a home in Manhattan during the first quarter of 2009 was $1,424,000, an 11% drop compared to the average price during the first quarter of 2008. ␣ The large drop in the city wide homes num- ber is largely the result of the decline in the number of sales of Manhattan condomini- ums and their average sales price.

The average sale price of a home in New York City was $783,000 in the third quarter of 2008, slightly higher than a year earlier ($782,000). However, since the first quarter 2008 the average sale price has been declining, due in part to the reduction in the number of condominium sales whose average sale price is higher than all the property types that comprise the Home category as well as the decline in the sale price city-wide of 1-3 family dwellings. The Manhattan average sale price of a home was $1,492,000 in the third quarter of 2008, up 12% from the third quarter 2007. Similarly, the average sale price for a Manhattan home has been declining since the first quarter 2008. Again, this decline is due in part to the decline in the number of condominium sales whose average sale price is higher than all the property types that comprise the Home category.

Homes (includes all condominium, coopera- tive units and 1-3 family dwellings) ␣ The average sale price of a home in New York City during the fourth quarter of 2008 was $669,000, a 10% decline from a year earlier. This decline continues a downward trend in all home prices since the beginning of the year. However, to provide another perspective, the fourth quarter 2008 price is still above the average price in the fourth quarter of 2006 and almost 17% higher than the average price in the first quarter of 2006 ␣ Manhattan was the only borough to post an increase in year-on-year average all homes' sale price. The 5% increase to $1,417,000 is due to the effect of the prices in condo market as well as the resilient coop market prices and volume. Also, a notable fall in transaction volume for Manhattan townhouses did not affect the average Manhattan all homes' price much since the few transactions that occurred were much higher than last year's average price.

New York City's average sale price for a home (apartments and one to three family homes) rose 12% to $824,000 in the second quarter of 2008, compared to a year ago. This increase is attributable primarily to the continuing price increases for Manhattan apartments.

The average sales price of a home in New York City reached $853,000 during the first quarter of 2008. This was an increase of 28% over the average price of a home in the first quarter of last year.

The average sales price of a home in New York City reached $732,000 during 2007. This was an increase of 15% over the average price of a home in 2006.